By Gary Snedaker

In mid-March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic was declared and all parties were told to “shelter in place.”  This ultimately shut down the residential real estate industry through the month of April 2020.  The market then accelerated rapidly in May through October. Year over year statistical comparisons are therefore going to be skewed by these market aberrations.

North Bay Real Estate Trends for March 2021

For all of the areas covered by Wine Country Group Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Lake, Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 1,450 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March. Inventory is 41% below that of a year ago (2,437) and slightly ahead of the inventory last month (1,431). At times, the inventory has exceeded 10,000 homes in the BAREIS region. There were 1,858 sales for the month of March. This number is 72% above a year ago (1,082) and 34% above last month (1,386).

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio”. Across the country, one might expect that 30 to 35% of the homes put into the MLS, will have a price reduction before they eventually sell.  For March 2021, of all closed homes in our Wine Country markets, the range was from 17.5% (Mendocino County) to 21% (Napa County).  Conversely, the ratio of homes selling in excess of Original List Price ranged from 37% (Mendocino) to 54% (Sonoma County).

Mendocino County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of March stands at 108. This is 52% below the inventory in March 2020 (225) and it is 2% above the inventory last month (106). New sales (72) in Mendocino County in March were 67% above the pace of March 2020 (43) and they were 39% above the pace last month (52).  There now is a 1.5 months supply of inventory in Mendocino County based on the existing sales pace. The average Days on Market for the 60 homes sold in Mendocino County in March is 70 days.  For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of the homes closed in March in Mendocino County was $510,000. This is 32% ahead of the median price in March 2020 ($387,000).  Mendocino County homes seem to be in high demand with prices rising quickly.

Ukiah: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March in Ukiah is 26 homes. This is 26% below the level of March 2020 (35) and it is equal to the inventory last month.  There were 29 new sales for the month of March. This is 93% above the number of sales in March 2020 (15) and it is 93% above the sales last month (15).  There is now 0.9 months of inventory based on the current sales pace. The ‘Days on Market’ for the 19 closings last month was 37 days. The median price of the homes sold in Ukiah in the past year has ranged from $370,000 to $505,000. The median price was $462,000 for the homes that closed in March.

Hopland and Talmage: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March in Hopland and Talmage is six homes. This compares to nine homes in inventory at the end of March 2020 and five homes in inventory last month. There were three new sales for the month of March. This compares to one sale in March 2020 and four new sales last month. There were four closings in the Talmage-Hopland market last month with an average days on market of 152 days.

Redwood Valley and Calpella: The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of March in Redwood Valley and Calpella is nine homes. This is 47% below the level of March 2020 (17) and it is 29% above the inventory last month (7). There were four new sales for the month of March.  This compares to five sales in March 2020 and five new sales last month. There is a 2.3 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The median price of the homes sold in Redwood Valley/Calpella in the past year has ranged from $400,000 to $655,000. There were four closings in Redwood Valley/Calpella in March at a median price of $540,000 and the homes sold in 49 days.

For additional information, please contact Gerrett Snedaker at 707-939-2009 or gsned@winecountrygroup.com

Originally Appeared On: https://www.willitsnews.com/2021/04/29/wine-country-real-estate-trends-in-march-2021