WHAT HAPPENS IF MISSISSIPPI WINS?
If Mississippi wins, it gets to enforce its 15-week ban, which lower courts have so far prohibited. In addition, other conservative states would certainly look to copy Mississippi’s law. A decision that states can limit previability abortions would also embolden states to pass more restrictions, which some states have already done and which are already wrapped up in legal challenges. Challenges to those limits would continue.
That said, the immediate practical impact of a win for Mississippi could be muted. That’s because more than 90% of abortions take place in the first 13 weeks of pregnancy, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
THE COURT IS CONSERVATIVE. IS THERE A LIKELY OUTCOME?
Mississippi would seem to have the upper hand, both because the justices agreed to hear the case in the first place and because of the makeup of the court. After the death of liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg in September and her replacement by conservative Justice Amy Coney Barrett, conservatives hold six of the court’s nine seats.
Barrett, one of former President Donald Trump’s three appointees to the court, is the most open opponent of abortion rights to join the court in decades. Trump’s other two appointees, Justices Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh, voted in dissent last year to allow Louisiana to enforce restrictions on doctors that could have closed two of the state’s three abortion clinics.