The world is today confronted with two nuclear threats of a proportion never previously seen in history. These threats are facing us at a time when the world economy is about to turn and decline precipitously not just for years but probably decades, writes in his in a detailed commentary Swiss financial analyst Egon von Greyerz, Founder and Managing Partner “Matterhorn Asset Management”.

The obvious nuclear threat is the war between the US and Russia which currently is playing out in Ukraine.

The other nuclear threat is the financial weapons of mass destruction in the form of debt and derivatives amounting to probably US$ 2.5 quadrillion.

If we are lucky, the geopolitical event can be avoided but I doubt that the explosion/implosion of the Western financial timebomb can be stopped.

In my estimation this is not a war between Russia and Ukraine but between the US and Russia. Russia found it unacceptable that the Minsk agreement of 2014 was not kept to. Instead, the bombing of the Donbas area continued, allegedly encouraged by the US. As Ukraine intensified the bombing, Russia invaded in Feb 2022.

I won’t go into the details here of who is at fault etc. But what is clear is that the US Neocons have a major interest for this war to escalate. For them Ukraine is just a pawn and the real enemy is Russia.

Most of Europe is heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas. Still Europe is shooting itself in the foot by agreeing to the sanctions initiated by the US. The consequences are disastrous for Europe and especially Germany which was the economic engine of Europe. Germany is now finished as an economic power. Time will prove this.

The global economic downturn started before the Ukrainian war but the situation has now severely deteriorated with the European economy weakening rapidly. Still, Europe is digging its own grave by sending more weapons and more money to Ukraine much of which being reported to end up in the wrong hands.

The Ukrainian leader Zelensky is skilfully inciting the West to escalate the war in order to achieve total NATO involvement.

The risk of a major escalation of the war is considerable. The US Neocons want to weaken Russia in a direct conflict. Major wars are often triggered by a minor event or a false flag.

The Neocons know that a defeat for the US in this conflict would be the end of the US dollar, hegemony and economy. At the same time, Russia is determined not to lose the war, whatever it takes. This is the kind of background that has a high risk of ending badly.

Since there is not a single Statesman in the West, dark forces behind the scenes are pulling the strings. This makes the situation particularly dangerous.

The risk of a nuclear war in such a situation is incalculable but still very real. There are 13,000 nuclear warheads in the world and less than a handful of these would wipe out most of the West and a dozen, a major part of the world.

Let’s hope that the West comes to its senses. If not, the consequences are unthinkable.

The other nuclear cloud which is financial will fortunately not end the world if it detonates but inflict a major global setback that could last many years, maybe decades.

The global debt expansion will end badly. This can be illustrated in a number of facts and graphs.

This one shows how global debt has grown 75X from $4 trillion to $300T since Nixon closed the gold window in 1971.

The graph also shows that the world could reach debt levels of maybe $3 quadrillion by 2030.

The US, the world’s biggest economy, is living on both borrowed time and money. In 1970 total US debt was 1.5X GDP. Today is is 3.6X. This means that in order to achieve a nominal growth in GDP, debt had to grow 2.5X as fast as GDP.

The conclusion is simple. Without credit and printed money there would be no real GDP growth. So the growth of the US economy is an illusion manufactured by bankers and led by the private Federal Reserve Bank. GDP can only grow if debt grows at an exponential rate.

The gap between debt and GDP growth is clearly unsustainable. Still with hysterical money printing in the next few years, in an attempt to save the US financial system, the gap is likely to widen even further before it is eroded.

There is only one way for the gap to narrow which is an implosion of the debt through default, both sovereign and private. Such an implosion will also lead to all assets inflated by the debt – including bonds, stocks and property – also imploding.

Temporarily the US has achieved this illusory wealth but sadly the time is now coming when the Piper must be paid.

The days of the dollar as reserve currency are counted. A currency that has lost 98% in the last 50 years hardly deserves the status of a reserve currency.

A combination of military might, petrodollar payments and history has kept the dollar far too strong for much too long. Since there is no immediate alternative, it is possible that the dollar temporarily will remain strong for a while as the Ukrainian conflict continues.

The days of the Petrodollar are also counted. Major moves are now taking place between the world’s biggest energy producers (excluding the US) which will gradually end the Petrodollar system.

But firstly let’s understand that in spite of the climate zealots, there will be no serious alternative to fossil fuels for many decades. Fossil fuels account for 83% of global energy.

Global growth can only be achieved with energy. Since renewables today only account for 6% and are growing very slowly, there will be no serious alternative to fossil fuels for many decades.

In spite of that, Western governments in Europe and the US have not only stopped investing in fossil fuels, but also closed down pipe lines, coal mines and nuclear power plants. This is of course sheer political and economic lunacy and a very rapid method to achieve a collapse of the world economy.

The GCC countries (Gulf Corporation Council) consist of Saudi Arabia, UAE plus a number of Gulf countries have 40% of the oil reserves in the world.

Another 40% of oil reserves belong to Russia, Iran and Venezuela all selling oil to China at a discount currently.

In addition there are the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Saudi Arabia also want to join the BRICS which represents 41% of the global population and 26% of global GDP.

Finally there is the SCO, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. This is a Eurasian political, economic and security organisation headquartered in China. It covers 60% of the area of Eurasia and over 30% of global GDP.

All of these organisations and countries (BRICS, GCC, SCO) are gradually going to gain global importance as the US, and Europe decline. They will cooperate both politically, commercially and financially.

As energy and oil is a common denominator for these countries, they will most likely operate with the Petroyuan as their common currency for trading.

With such a powerful constellation, minor hobbyist groups like Schwab’s World Economic Forum will dwarf in significance and finally disappear as the WEF members including the political leaders lose their power and the billionaires their wealth.

A full nuclear war between the US, Russia and China is the end of mankind and no one can protect against this kind of event.

To summarise, the risks today are greater than anytime in history, warns the Swiss financial analyst Egon von Greyerz.

International Affairs

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African countries are likely to embrace sustainable buildings this year, a new report has stated.

The report with the title “2023 Africa Real Estate Trends to Watch Out For” was published by Estate Intel.

It noted that there were approximately 300 green buildings in Africa outside of South Africa, while this number was nowhere near the 120,000 global green buildings.  Markets such as Nairobi, Accra and Lagos have recorded over 200 per cent increase on average in the past three years.

“Notably, access to financing has been the lead driver for the majority of developers and investors steering the momentum towards green. This has resulted in major transactions across the continent such as the announcement of the largest syndicated sustainability-linked real estate debt facility secured by Grit in 2022 and organised by Standard Bank.

“Interestingly, this momentum towards green adoption has not only been at the private sector but also at the public sector level. Cairo’s Capital Garden City development initiative is perhaps the most notable initiative by Governments to drive ‘green affordability’. The development features approximately 25,000 units under development in the ‘Green Housing’ initiative aimed at driving energy and water efficiency,” it stated.

According to the report, while Nigeria has had limited green building activity, it ranks second to Kenya at 64 per cent on the matrix in terms of the adoption potential, with significant progress being made towards green building legislation and its commitment to Net Zero by 2060.

The report further noted that affordable housing and data centres would be the key alternative sectors to watch out for.

“Although rarely viewed as an asset class across the continent, affordable housing is making a comeback. While this momentum has been steered by governments across Kenya, Zambia, Nigeria and Egypt, the challenge of a gaping housing deficit is set to result in the unlocking of institutional investor interest.

“So far Kenya’s new government is looking to put up approximately 200,000 housing units per annum. While this ambition has been viewed as too ambitious, it could very well initiate specialist funding vehicles focused on the sector in the market.

Similarly, the recent trend of expansion in the data-centred market has seen data centres rise to the top five sectors for investments in the Africa deal flow tracker. Equinix’s debut into the South African market through a 4MW facility in Johannesburg as well as the recent Africa Data Centres announcement to expand into Rwanda and revamp its operations in Nairobi are some of the key expansion announcements recorded across the continent. With the sector still in its nascent stages, it is set to see more investments and new builds in order to fully support the whole African continent in 2023,” It added.

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MUSKEGON, MI – A judge used pointed language in refusing to toss a lawsuit that challenges the city of Muskegon’s transfer of property with Muskegon Lake public access to a developer.

“The court finds that elements of bad faith accompany the transfer of the real estate and the extinguishment of (public access) easements,” Muskegon County Circuit Judge Kenneth Hoopes wrote in an opinion issued Monday, Jan. 9.

The transfer of a public street that accessed a public peninsula walkway to Jon Rooks and his Parkland Properties has been challenged by West Michigan Dock and Market, known as the Mart Dock, in a lawsuit filed last August.

Rooks plans to develop a large in-out boat service and indoor boat storage operation on the property.

A request by the city for a summary disposition rejecting the lawsuit claims was denied by Hoopes.

Parkland paid $1 to the city for the drive and lakefront walkway near its Shoreline Inn and Terrace Pointe Marina. The development company also paid $1 in return for the city erasing an easement that had allowed public access in perpetuity.

A development agreement outlining the property deal was approved by the city commission in December 2020. The actual property transfer didn’t occur for another year.

The Mart Dock claims the deal violated the state Constitution by trading public land for next to nothing. It also claims the city’s ordinance was violated because a public hearing wasn’t held prior to the vacation of a public street.

Hoopes wrote that it would be up to a jury to determine if the $2 was adequate compensation and whether the ordinance was violated.

Rooks is planning a dry marina, and possibly boat sales, for the location, which is next to his Terrace Point Marina and Shoreline Inn.

Related: Lawsuit claims city shouldn’t have given away Muskegon Lake public access

The promise that Rooks would pursue some sort of development, along with $2, was the city’s compensation for the property.

Hoopes wrote that “the agreement does not obligate the developer to do anything whatsoever for the city’s benefit.”

“The court agrees with Mart Dock that the hope for general economic growth as a result of a development project is not consideration for a contract,” the judge wrote.

Mart Dock President Max McKee told MLive/Muskegon Chronicle he wasn’t surprised by the judge’s decision.

He also said he has reached out to city officials, offering to “stay the proceedings” in return for a conversation about the lawsuit. So far, they have declined such a meeting, McKee said.

“It is the city’s decision to make. but public input is ultimately what should occur,” McKee said. “To be clear, it is the mayor and the city attorney that are leading the fight to deny regaining the waterfront public access. They have been controlling the city’s narrative and effort thus far; perhaps others will get involved.”

When contacted by MLive, Muskegon Mayor Ken Johnson declined to comment about the judge’s decision.

The agreement to transfer the property occurred under a different administration led by former City Manager Frank Peterson and former Mayor Steve Gawron. Johnson was a city commissioner at the time and expressed concern about losing public access when the agreement was discussed in December 2020.

In seeking a summary disposition of the case, the city argued that the Mart Dock does not have standing to bring the lawsuit, calling the corporation a “legal fiction” that can’t benefit from using the public space.

But Hoopes said the Mart Dock does have standing as a “municipal taxpayer.”

“In addition, the court notes that the disputed development agreement recites that part of the transferred property is to be used for parking for the benefit of the developer – a corporation,” Hoopes wrote.

The Mart Dock, which operates a commercial port and indoor storage facilities on Muskegon Lake near downtown, owns lakefront property adjacent to the Parkland Properties land that is in dispute.

The city argued that it didn’t violate the state Constitution because it received adequate compensation for the property. The Constitution states that municipalities can’t give away public property without compensation, or “consideration.”

The appropriateness of that compensation is not something the court should “second guess,” the city argued in its motion for summary disposition.

However, Hoopes wrote that “there was no consideration to support the development agreement.”

“There is no express obligation for the developer to pay the city any money for the parcel or for extinguishing the easements,” he wrote, later explaining, “the city’s hope for the future of its economy is all the agreement here contemplates.”

In 1991, the city and then property owner SPX Corp. agreed to a “dedication” of the property that it “forever” be available “for the use and enjoyment by the general public.” The property with that dedication later was transferred to the city.

In a “termination of dedication” filed in January 2022, the city declared that dedication was “no longer relevant” and Parkland paid the city $1 to terminate it.

Parkland also paid the city $1 for the quit claim deed on the property.

During a court hearing on the city’s motion in November, the city’s attorney said there are plans to guarantee access to the public, but they can’t be finalized until Rooks gets permits for the dry marina he’s planning for that area. As a result, the lawsuit is premature, attorney Sawyer Rozgowski argued.

Hoopes at the same hearing questioned why the city didn’t spell out in the development agreement its desire to maintain public access to the lake.

The dry marina Rooks is planning for the area involves in-out boat service and boat storage in a large warehouse located where the drive and a parking lot for the hotel and marina are located.

The marina could move 200 to 300 boats per day Rooks told commissioners in December 2020 when they were contemplating the development agreement.

The city will allow replacement parking for the hotel and marina, as well as Rooks’ nearby Lakehouse Waterfront Grille, to be constructed by Parkland on city-owned property as well as along Terrace Point Drive, according to the agreement.

Also on MLive

$6M would be invested in Muskegon parks under plan that includes new director, advisory board

Senior housing firm buys downtown Muskegon lot where ambitious Foundry Square was planned

No credible threat found after Mona Shores student posts picture of gun with alarming caption

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Originally Appeared Here

The world is today confronted with two nuclear threats of a proportion never previously seen in history. These threats are facing us at a time when the world economy is about to turn and decline precipitously not just for years but probably decades, writes in his in a detailed commentary Swiss financial analyst Egon von Greyerz, Founder and Managing Partner “Matterhorn Asset Management”.

The obvious nuclear threat is the war between the US and Russia which currently is playing out in Ukraine.

The other nuclear threat is the financial weapons of mass destruction in the form of debt and derivatives amounting to probably US$ 2.5 quadrillion.

If we are lucky, the geopolitical event can be avoided but I doubt that the explosion/implosion of the Western financial timebomb can be stopped.

In my estimation this is not a war between Russia and Ukraine but between the US and Russia. Russia found it unacceptable that the Minsk agreement of 2014 was not kept to. Instead, the bombing of the Donbas area continued, allegedly encouraged by the US. As Ukraine intensified the bombing, Russia invaded in Feb 2022.

I won’t go into the details here of who is at fault etc. But what is clear is that the US Neocons have a major interest for this war to escalate. For them Ukraine is just a pawn and the real enemy is Russia.

Most of Europe is heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas. Still Europe is shooting itself in the foot by agreeing to the sanctions initiated by the US. The consequences are disastrous for Europe and especially Germany which was the economic engine of Europe. Germany is now finished as an economic power. Time will prove this.

The global economic downturn started before the Ukrainian war but the situation has now severely deteriorated with the European economy weakening rapidly. Still, Europe is digging its own grave by sending more weapons and more money to Ukraine much of which being reported to end up in the wrong hands.

The Ukrainian leader Zelensky is skilfully inciting the West to escalate the war in order to achieve total NATO involvement.

The risk of a major escalation of the war is considerable. The US Neocons want to weaken Russia in a direct conflict. Major wars are often triggered by a minor event or a false flag.

The Neocons know that a defeat for the US in this conflict would be the end of the US dollar, hegemony and economy. At the same time, Russia is determined not to lose the war, whatever it takes. This is the kind of background that has a high risk of ending badly.

Since there is not a single Statesman in the West, dark forces behind the scenes are pulling the strings. This makes the situation particularly dangerous.

The risk of a nuclear war in such a situation is incalculable but still very real. There are 13,000 nuclear warheads in the world and less than a handful of these would wipe out most of the West and a dozen, a major part of the world.

Let’s hope that the West comes to its senses. If not, the consequences are unthinkable.

The other nuclear cloud which is financial will fortunately not end the world if it detonates but inflict a major global setback that could last many years, maybe decades.

The global debt expansion will end badly. This can be illustrated in a number of facts and graphs.

This one shows how global debt has grown 75X from $4 trillion to $300T since Nixon closed the gold window in 1971.

The graph also shows that the world could reach debt levels of maybe $3 quadrillion by 2030.

The US, the world’s biggest economy, is living on both borrowed time and money. In 1970 total US debt was 1.5X GDP. Today is is 3.6X. This means that in order to achieve a nominal growth in GDP, debt had to grow 2.5X as fast as GDP.

The conclusion is simple. Without credit and printed money there would be no real GDP growth. So the growth of the US economy is an illusion manufactured by bankers and led by the private Federal Reserve Bank. GDP can only grow if debt grows at an exponential rate.

The gap between debt and GDP growth is clearly unsustainable. Still with hysterical money printing in the next few years, in an attempt to save the US financial system, the gap is likely to widen even further before it is eroded.

There is only one way for the gap to narrow which is an implosion of the debt through default, both sovereign and private. Such an implosion will also lead to all assets inflated by the debt – including bonds, stocks and property – also imploding.

Temporarily the US has achieved this illusory wealth but sadly the time is now coming when the Piper must be paid.

The days of the dollar as reserve currency are counted. A currency that has lost 98% in the last 50 years hardly deserves the status of a reserve currency.

A combination of military might, petrodollar payments and history has kept the dollar far too strong for much too long. Since there is no immediate alternative, it is possible that the dollar temporarily will remain strong for a while as the Ukrainian conflict continues.

The days of the Petrodollar are also counted. Major moves are now taking place between the world’s biggest energy producers (excluding the US) which will gradually end the Petrodollar system.

But firstly let’s understand that in spite of the climate zealots, there will be no serious alternative to fossil fuels for many decades. Fossil fuels account for 83% of global energy.

Global growth can only be achieved with energy. Since renewables today only account for 6% and are growing very slowly, there will be no serious alternative to fossil fuels for many decades.

In spite of that, Western governments in Europe and the US have not only stopped investing in fossil fuels, but also closed down pipe lines, coal mines and nuclear power plants. This is of course sheer political and economic lunacy and a very rapid method to achieve a collapse of the world economy.

The GCC countries (Gulf Corporation Council) consist of Saudi Arabia, UAE plus a number of Gulf countries have 40% of the oil reserves in the world.

Another 40% of oil reserves belong to Russia, Iran and Venezuela all selling oil to China at a discount currently.

In addition there are the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Saudi Arabia also want to join the BRICS which represents 41% of the global population and 26% of global GDP.

Finally there is the SCO, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. This is a Eurasian political, economic and security organisation headquartered in China. It covers 60% of the area of Eurasia and over 30% of global GDP.

All of these organisations and countries (BRICS, GCC, SCO) are gradually going to gain global importance as the US, and Europe decline. They will cooperate both politically, commercially and financially.

As energy and oil is a common denominator for these countries, they will most likely operate with the Petroyuan as their common currency for trading.

With such a powerful constellation, minor hobbyist groups like Schwab’s World Economic Forum will dwarf in significance and finally disappear as the WEF members including the political leaders lose their power and the billionaires their wealth.

A full nuclear war between the US, Russia and China is the end of mankind and no one can protect against this kind of event.

To summarise, the risks today are greater than anytime in history, warns the Swiss financial analyst Egon von Greyerz.

International Affairs

Related

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Originally Appeared Here

Kaylin Culver (left) and Jesse Schue (right).
Provided / Tahoe Real Estate Team

Lake Tahoe has long been a popular destination for people all over the world. With its stunning mountain views, multiple options for skiing or snowboarding, hundreds of miles of hiking trails, and abundant opportunities for recreation, it’s no wonder why so many people are drawn to the area. Whether you’re looking to buy or sell property in Lake Tahoe, it’s important to understand the local real estate trends and statistics.

The information we are sharing is from the South Lake Tahoe Association of Realtors local MLS (Multiple Listing Service). Unlike real estate websites like Zillow, or Realtor.com the MLS provides Realtor’s true, accurate sales data that we can pass on to our clients. Sometimes third party sites like those listed above can have inaccurate data feeds, resulting in misinformation.

December 2022 was a steady month for real estate. In the South Tahoe MLS, the median home price was $715K. This number is up 1.3% from last year and despite the increase in interest rates, home values are expected to continue to stabilize, but remain strong, as demand for properties remains high.

Are we seeing price reductions? Absolutely. However, in the past two weeks, we have not seen as many price reductions as we did in December 2022. In the last 14 days, there were five price reductions in the South Tahoe MLS on single-family residential properties. We are seeing, with the shift in the market, buyers and sellers are negotiating again on price and terms. You may have heard this before, but we have returned to a “normal” market.

During the fall and winter months, inventory is statistically lower due to the holidays and snowfall. Despite these factors, there is still a reasonable number of homes on the market. Last month there were 51 single-family homes available in the South Tahoe MLS. Interestingly enough, this number is about the same compared to December 2021 showing it had 52 active listings, in what we considered a “hot” market.

December’s sales statistics showed us, the median time a home spent on the market before being sold is 77 days. Why do I keep saying median rather than average? The median allows us to remove the outliers for price and days on market. So, to get a true pulse of the real estate in our region, I like to look at the median.

In December, there were 35 homes that sold in South Lake Tahoe, specifically. Six of which sold at list price, two sold above and the remaining 27 homes sold below list price. This indicates that sellers are making more concessions during a real estate transaction to meet buyer needs. However, if a home is priced correctly, in good condition, and in a desirable area, buyers will still be willing to pay appropriately for these conveniences.

If you are a seller, hiring a trusted Realtor to help you determine your list price based on the most recent comparable properties is crucial. My partner and I always go into listing appointments wanting to know. What is your goal? Of course, you want to sell the house. But how quickly and under what other circumstances? The answer to this question really helps determine an appropriate pricing approach for your home. Long are the days of being able to throw a high number against the wall and get 10-15-20 offers. Pricing is a strategy and should be discussed with a professional.

As you can see, South Lake Tahoe offers potential buyers and sellers plenty of opportunities. Thanks to its stunning scenery and close proximity to ski resorts and outdoor activities, it will always be a desirable area. Though prices remain higher than many other parts of California and Nevada, there are still good deals available if you know where to look.

Kaylin Culver is a Realtor for Re/Max Gold based in South Lake Tahoe. She is part of the Lake Tahoe Real Estate Team, led by Broker-Owner Jesse Schue.

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Originally Appeared Here

Representative ImageNEW DELHI: Godrej Properties (GPL) has purchased 60-acres land parcel on an outright basis in Oragadam Junction, Chennai, the company said in a BSE filing.

The proposed project is estimated to have a developable potential of approximately 1.6 million sq ft of saleable area, comprising primarily of residential plotted development.

It recently acquired approximately 9 acres of land in Gurugram, Haryana through an outright purchase. This project will offer approximately 1.6 million sq ft of premium residential development.

It also acquired approximately 62 acres of land through outright purchase in Kurukshetra. This project will offer approximately 1.4 million sq ft of plotted residential developments.

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Price sensitivity will be the main driver for landlords and property managers jockeying to attract and retain tenants in 2023. In fact, this defining trend will only compound and deepen in importance in future years as tenant income growth remains weak, unemployment levels remain staggeringly high, interest rates creep upwards, and inflation – particularly utility and municipal expenses – outpace rental escalations.

Michelle Dickens, deputy CEO, and Johette Smuts, head of data analytics, at PayProp

Michelle Dickens, deputy CEO of PayProp, suggests that, “Savvy landlords and property managers can add real value by future-proofing their investments. For example, investment in infrastructure such as alternative energy and smart energy utilisation will enable cost savings in utility costs and other property expenses.”

Trend 1: Rent escalation and inflation mismatch impacts affordability

Pre-pandemic, the South African tenant endured rental escalations of 3.5 to 4.5% – similar to inflation at the time.

The ensuing pandemic period had a dramatic effect on rental escalation, which disconcertingly turned negative (-0.3% YoY in November 2020). Meanwhile, inflation (Consumer Price Index or CPI) bottomed out at 2.1% in May 2020.

Inflation is currently soaring again at 7.6%, but landlords are being left behind with rental escalation achieving a mere 3.1% in August 2022 and dropping lower to 2.6% in September 2022.

Landlords are feeling the pressure with the combined effects of low rental escalation, but property expenses (such as levies and municipal charges) increasing at higher-than-inflation rates, and most notably now, increasing interest rates.

Trend 2: Rising interest rates worsen debt-to-income ratio and drive down rental escalation

The second trend which will impact the real estate market in 2023 is rising interest rates. Tenant affordability will come under pressure as tenant’s debt obligations to their credit providers will notch up with each interest rate hike.

And as interest rates spike, there’s downward pressure on rental escalation at the same time.

Johette Smuts, PayProp head of data analytics, notes that, “Tenants who downscale are becoming more common, as reported in the PayProp State of the Rental Industry Survey, in which one in three tenants reported moving to more affordable homes.”

Importantly, tenants’ debt-to-income ratio hovered between 42-48% pre-pandemic. The low interest rate cycle of 2020 and 2021 helped curb this, giving tenants the chance to save on interest-related repayments. Tenants’ debt-to-income ratio accordingly fell to 37% during this time.

But as inflation started to rise in mid-2021 and interest rates did the same in November 2021, so too did the tenant debt-to-income ratio, which breached 48% by the beginning of 2022.

“This reinforced the overarching trend of affordability being the real driver behind the real estate market in 2023,” says Dickens.

How energy efficiency can help alleviate the affordability crunch

Now more than ever, energy efficiency and alternative energy are key considerations for both tenants and landlords, Dickens continues.

“Property managers are at the coal face of managing monthly meter readings, readings between occupants, as well as collection and disbursements of the flow of money between utility providers, tenants and owners,” she says. “Accordingly, they have a fiduciary responsibility to ensure accuracy and transparency of the reconciliation of money between the parties.”

The role of proptech: scale and efficiency

Dickens says proptech and fintech are fundamental to real estate sustainability through efficiency.

“One area of this is energy efficiency. Proptech, which integrates with smart meters to facilitate data analysis, seamlessly provides tenants and landlords with the intelligence to inform their own energy utilisation, which enables tenants to better budget on monthly utility costs. Landlords benefit through monitoring for excessive or zero consumption as a result of a breach of the smart meter.”

“Proptech drives efficiencies for property managers, enabling them to operate at a higher scale and grow their businesses, as well as reduce costs in an environment where affordability is the leading driver of real estate in 2023,” concludes Dickens.

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Originally Appeared Here

U.S. real estate has undergone a dramatic slowdown in transaction activity in the months since the Federal Reserve began jacking up interest rates.

Sales of existing homes plunged from peak pandemic levels to about 4.1 million in November (see chart) from over 6 million units sold per year in 2021 as the Fed has dramatically raised interest rates to tame inflation.

U.S. real estate transaction volume has collapse with higher rates

Deutsche Bank, RCA, National Association of Realtors, Bloomberg Finance

Similarly, the chart shows commercial real estate transactions dropping off a cliff after they rose 40% higher than their prior peak in 2019, according to a new client note from Deutsche Bank research.

“Real estate is one of the key levers the Fed can use to slow the economy; higher rates are dramatically reducing US real estate activity,” a Deutsche research team led by Ed Reardon wrote in a weekly market briefing.

They also noted that mortgage rates of about 6.5% in both sectors will allow the Fed “to unwind some exuberance” in the housing market, where prices climbed about 40% since March 2020 and roughly 30% in commercial real estate.

Related: The party is over in commercial real estate. Here’s what to expect in 2023.

The Fed began rapidly increasing its policy interest rate from near-zero in March to help bring inflation that peaked above a 9% annual rate this summer closer to its 2% target. Its federal funds rate was increased to a 4.25% to 4.5% range in December, the highest since 2007, with another rate bump expected in February.

Earlier this week, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said she expects the central bank to boost interest rates above 5% to get inflation down. A new monthly update on consumer inflation due Thursday is expected to show inflation falling for six months in a row to a 6.5% annual rate.

U.S. stocks have staged a modest rally to start 2023 as some investors interpret retreating price pressures and moderating wage gains as signs that the economy might still avoid a recession, even though central bankers keep saying to expect high rates until inflation deeply recedes.

Read: Inflation is slowing, CPI to show. But is it slowing fast enough for the Fed?

The S&P 500 index
SPX,
+0.83%
was up 0.7% on Wednesday ahead of Thursday’s inflation reading, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+0.50%
was up 0.4% and the rate-sensitive Nasdaq Composite Index
COMP,
+8.64%
was 1.1% higher, according to FactSet.

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Originally Appeared Here

FLORIDA — The continuing population boom in Florida — 737,945 new residents moved to the state between April 2020 and April 2022, lured by warm weather, lower taxes and fewer regulations than other states — has conservationists worried about overdevelopment and the destruction of the natural habitat.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Tuesday the state’s growth is raising more tax money to go toward protecting conservation lands.

Exactly four years after signing his first executive order in Bonita Springs pledging to fund a laundry list of environmental initiatives including restoring the Everglades and preserving wildlife corridors, DeSantis returned to the southwest Florida city to sign another executive order that will pour more dollars into conservation efforts.

Find out what’s happening in Tampawith free, real-time updates from Patch.

“Four years ago today, I came down to Bonita Springs and announced we were going to bring about a new era of stewardship for Florida’s natural resources,” DeSantis said during a news conference Tuesday. “I’m happy to say we delivered on the promises we made four years ago.”

The Everglades Foundation CEO Eric Eikenberg remembers that day well. He said DeSantis had just taken the oath of office less than 48 hours before visiting Bonita Springs. Everyone was surprised when the Republican governor announced that he was allocating $2.5 billion for environmental projects, $1 billion more than was allocated during the previous four years.

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DeSantis said the state actually spent $3.3 billion on environmental initiatives during the past four years, including $1.7 billion on more than 50 projects to restore the Everglades.

“Now Gov. DeSantis has cemented himself as the Everglades governor,” Eikenberg said.

Funds also went to resurrecting task forces to mitigate the environmental damage caused by blue-green algae and red tide.

Another $1.6 billion went to water quality and supply improvements, including converting septic tanks to sewer service.

See related story: It Began With A Bear; Now 36,445 Acres Are Preserved In Florida

Additionally, the Florida Legislature passed the Clean Water Act and the Florida Wildlife Corridor Act, which funneled $600 million toward the purchase of more than 170,000 acres of conservation land.

But DeSantis said his reason for visiting Bonita Springs Tuesday wasn’t to gloat over his accomplishments. Instead, he said he came to announce that he isn’t finished.

“I’m here to put it into a higher gear and build off our progress and success by signing another executive order to ensure we continue our historic momentum and preserve Florida for future generations,” he said.

With that, he declared that he is pledging $3.5 billion to continue his environmental efforts for another four years.

That money will go to restoring the Indian River Lagoon — the most biologically diverse estuary in North America, addressing stormwater and agricultural runoff, reducing harmful discharge into the Everglades, continuing to acquire property for the wildlife corridor, preserving additional land for Florida’s wildlife corridor, launching a coral reef restoration and recovery program and funding research into fighting the impacts of red tide and blue-green algae.

He said money also will be used to make communities more resilient to weather impacts, such as the severe beach erosion seen on the east coast after Hurricane Nicole made landfall.

DeSantis said Tuesday’s Executive Order 23-06 (Achieving Even More Now for Florida’s Environment) will surpass “historic investments of the past four years, making it the highest level of funding in Florida’s history. I think those dollars are very well spent.”

DeSantis said his laissez-faire policies that led to criticism by Democrats during the pandemic was the economic engine that allowed these environmental programs.

While other states were shut down during the pandemic, DeSantis allowed businesses to continue operating. He said this hands-off approach resulted in more tourism and enticed businesses and residents to relocate to Florida.

Florida now ranks as the No. 1 destination for Americans looking to relocate to a new state, according to Globest.com, which analyzes national real estate trends.

“It’s crazy the number of people down here at any given time, and not just visiting, but moving here,” DeSantis said.

That influx of tourism, new residents and businesses resulted in a $450 million budget surplus, he said.

“That would not have happened if we had turned Florida into a Fauciville,” DeSantis said, referring to former chief medical adviser to the president, Anthony Fauci, who urged business and community shut-downs during the pandemic.

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The housing market is one of those asset classes that get better with time. Historically, home values rise even if there are stretches in between when the market slows down. For example, in the five-and-a-half decades leading up to 2022, home prices adjusted for inflation climbed higher by 4.23 percent annually, according to statistical data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor.  

However, in 2022, the U.S. housing market was up against a perfect storm of economic headwinds, including rising interest rates, high inflation, and the looming threat of a recession. 

As of December 2022, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage finally fell below 6 percent after rising above 7 percent in September. 

The housing market can change drastically from year to year. Considering that historical results don’t guarantee future performance, we thought now would be an excellent time to explore the housing market trends and predictions for the next five years: 2023 to 2026. 

Housing Market Predictions for the Next 5 Years 

Heading into 2023, demand in the real estate market continues to surpass supply, which bodes well for the next five years in terms of market trends and predictions, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).  

However, there are different perspectives considering the future of the housing market. Let’s get into it. 

The 2022 Housing Market Landscape 

It has been tough sledding for homebuyers this year. Builders had to contend with the cancellation of construction, mortgage rates were rising, and home sales sunk. However, Realtor.com believes home prices are poised to increase between the end of 2022 and the end of 2023 compared to the NAR’s call for a 2.5 percent increase. 

All told, it has been a chilly real estate market in 2022 due to a perfect storm of rising mortgage rates, sellers waiting on the sidelines to list their homes until market conditions improve, and buyers not being able to afford the same home they could afford a year ago. 

Housing Market Predictions 2023

Zillow predicts home values will rise by 1.3 percent in the next 12 months ending September 2023. The company also warns that based on the pace of pending home sales activity and mortgage applications, there are “significant downside risks to home sale volumes into 2023”. 

CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Happ suggests that thanks to a combination of depleting housing inventory, easing mortgage rates, and improved economic data, real estate values could stabilize in 2023. 

Housing Market Predictions 2024

According to a Zillow survey, the real estate market may revisit pre-pandemic levels in 2024 and first-time home buyers will likely reclaim market share in 2024. We also see that Capital Economics, a world research firm, expects housing prices to increase by 3 percent by the end of 2024. 

Wall Street bank Goldman Sachs has issued a forecast for the housing market too. The firm predicts that while U.S. home prices will drop 5-10 percent over the coming year, the market will reach its bottom at the end of 2023. This will lead to leveling prices in 2024, which should stay stable through mid-year. Overall, the bank predicts a slow recovery in housing prices in 2024. 

Housing Market Predictions 2025

A 2022 Zillow poll suggests that housing inventories will strengthen by 12 percent in 2025, which would undoubtedly give buyers more leverage. A Zillow survey also found that 13 percent of participants expect homebuyers to be in the driver’s seat in 2025. 

Housing Market Predictions 2026

Zillow’s home price expectancy poll of economists and real estate experts shows that most participants expect home prices to rise 46.5 percent in the next four years. A more conservative cohort predicts a more modest 10.3 percent growth in the same period. In addition, a mere 8 percent of poll participants expect the housing market to largely favor homebuyers in 2026.  

Where are Housing Prices Going Down? 

Home prices are trending lower in the following cities: 

• Austin, Texas
• Phoenix, Arizona
• Palm Bay, Florida
• Charleston, S.C. 
• Ogden, Utah 

Where are Housing Prices Rising? 

Home prices are trending higher in the following cities: 

• Miami, Florida
• Memphis, Tennessee
• Omaha, Nebraska
• Wichita, Kansas
• Greensboro, North Carolina 

Will the Housing Market Crash in the Next Five Years? 

The last time the housing market crashed was in 2008, when the subprime mortgage crisis emerged, sending the real estate market into a tailspin. 

San Jose State University economist Fred Folvary predicted that crisis and believes the housing market is due for a crash every 18 years. According to Folvary, the next housing market crash cycle is expected in 2024, which he says will snowball into a great economic depression in 2026.  On the other hand, NAR economists forecast price growth in the housing market in the range of 15-25 percent over the next half-decade.  

However, there is no crystal ball in real estate. Five years is like an eternity in the housing market and therefore it is difficult to pinpoint exactly what economic and market conditions will be like. 

Will the Housing Market Turn Into a Buyer’s Market in the Next Five Years? 

A buyer’s market is created when housing supply outpaces demand, the opposite of the NAR’s predictions for 2023. On the other hand, a seller’s market occurs when demand is stronger than supply, or housing inventory. Some sources are seeing growing evidence that the housing market is already turning into a buyer’s market vs. a seller’s market.  

According to a Homelight poll surveying real estate agents, the seller’s market that emerged in 2022 is beginning to fade headed into the new year. Agents say the pendulum has already started to swing toward buyers in terms of prices in the real estate market. 

As of the fourth quarter of 2022, nearly one-quarter of real estate agents described the market as a “buyer’s market” compared to the 10 percent of agents who did in the previous quarter.  

Is It a Good Idea to Buy a House In the Next Five Years? 

The evidence shows that real estate markets can change dramatically in a year. So if you plan to buy a house in the next five years, chances are you will find a sweet spot in the market. If you believe the worst case will come, and another housing crisis will unfold in 2024, then you should act sooner than later. 

Otherwise, wait and see how the interest rate plays out. As mortgage rates become more attractive, which, based on the trajectory of policymakers, is expected, pick your spot to get off the sidelines and jump into the market. 

There is No Time Like the Present and Total Mortgage Can Help 

One thing is clear: the next five years will be exciting in the housing market. 

With mortgage rates finally beginning to ease in the U.S. economy thanks to the Federal Reserve slowly taking its foot off the gas pedal, now could be the time to jump in and find your dream home. 

Start the application process with Total Mortgage. We have loan experts standing by at our offices around the country and they are ready to help you understand the mortgage rate environment, and how to navigate the changes ahead. 

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