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COVID Vaccine for Ages 12 and Up

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The U.S. Food and Drug Administration plans to expand emergency use of Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine by next week so that children as young as 12 can be immunized.

After Pfizer’s trial in adolescents showed its vaccine worked as well in teens as it does in adults, the FDA started preparing to add an amendment covering that age group to the vaccine’s emergency use authorization, The New York Times reported. Federal officials familiar with the agency’s plans who were not authorized to speak publicly relayed the information, the Times said.

Medical experts welcomed the news, calling it a major step forward in the U.S. vaccination campaign.

Vaccinating children is key to raising the level of immunity in the population, experts told the Times, and it could put school administrators, teachers and parents at ease if millions of students become eligible for vaccinations before schools open in September.

Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health and the father of two teenage daughters, said the approval would be a big moment for families like his.

“It just ends all concerns about being able to have a pretty normal fall for high schoolers,” he told the Times. “It’s great for them, it’s great for schools, for families who have kids in this age range.”

Still, with demand for vaccines falling among adult Americans — and much of the world clamoring for the surplus of American-made vaccines — some experts said the United States should donate excess shots to India and other countries that have had severe outbreaks.

“From an ethical perspective, we should not be prioritizing people like them [adolescents] over people in countries like India,” Dr. Rupali Limaye, a Johns Hopkins University researcher who studies vaccine use, told the Times.

But Jha said that the United States now has enough vaccine supply to both give shots to young Americans and to help the rest of the world. As of Monday, the United States had about 65 million doses delivered but not administered, including 31 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine, according to figures collected by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

More than 105 million adults in the United States have been fully vaccinated, but 44 percent of American adults still have not yet received even one shot.

While most adolescents seem to be spared from severe COVID-19, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the Biden administration’s top COVID-19 adviser, has stressed the importance of expanding vaccination efforts to include them and even younger children.

Herd immunity may be an elusive goal

While more than half of American adults have gotten at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, many scientists and public health experts now believe that herd immunity cannot be reached in the foreseeable future.

Instead, the virus will most likely become a manageable threat that will circulate in the United States for years to come, causing hospitalizations and deaths but in much smaller numbers, the Times reported.

How much smaller depends to a great degree on how many get vaccinated and how the coronavirus evolves. The virus is changing quickly, new variants are spreading easily and vaccination is moving too slowly for herd immunity to be established as quickly as some experts had hoped.

“The virus is unlikely to go away,” Rustom Antia, an evolutionary biologist at Emory University in Atlanta, told the Times. “But we want to do all we can to check that it’s likely to become a mild infection.”

The drive for herd immunity convinced many Americans it was worthwhile to be vaccinated, so vaccine skeptics may use the latest thinking from public health experts to avoid being vaccinated, the Times noted. But vaccinations remain the key to turning the virus into a threat that can be tamed, experts said.

Fauci acknowledged the shift in thinking.

“People were getting confused and thinking you’re never going to get the infections down until you reach this mystical level of herd immunity, whatever that number is,” he told the Times. “That’s why we stopped using herd immunity in the classic sense. I’m saying: Forget that for a second. You vaccinate enough people, the infections are going to go down.”

Early on, herd immunity was estimated to be about 60% to 70% of the population. Most experts, including Fauci, thought the United States could reach that threshold once vaccines were available.

But as vaccine distribution hit its stride this spring, the threshold target rose, mostly because of the emergence of more contagious variants of the virus. The predominant variant now circulating in the United States, called B.1.1.7 and first spotted in the U.K., is about 60 percent more transmissible.

Experts now estimate the herd immunity threshold to be at least 80 percent. If even more contagious variants develop, or if scientists find that immunized people can still transmit the virus, the threshold estimate will rise again, the Times reported.

“What we want to do at the very least is get to a point where we have just really sporadic little flare-ups,” Carl Bergstrom, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Washington in Seattle, told the Times. “That would be a very sensible target in this country, where we have an excellent vaccine and the ability to deliver it.”

Vaccination rates among police officers remains low

Although police officers were among the first front-line workers to have access to coronavirus vaccines, their vaccination rates are lower than or about the same as those of the general public, new data from some of the nation’s largest law enforcement agencies shows.

At the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department, just 39 percent of employees have gotten at least one dose, officials said, compared to more than 50 percent of eligible adults nationwide. In Atlanta, 36 percent of sworn officers have been vaccinated, the Washington Post reported. And a mere 28 percent of those employed by the Columbus Division of Police — Ohio’s largest police department — report having received a shot.

“I think it’s unacceptable,” Joe Lombardo, the head of Las Vegas police and sheriff of Clark County, said of the meager demand for the shots within his force.

Because officers have high rates of diabetes, heart disease and other conditions, their hesitancy puts them at greater risk of serious illness from the coronavirus while also undermining force readiness, experts told the Post. Police officers were more likely to die of COVID-19 last year than of all other causes combined, according to data compiled by the National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund.

Vaccine hesitancy among the police also means they can spread the virus to vulnerable people with whom they interact.

“Police touch people,” Sharona Hoffman, a professor of law and bioethics at Case Western Reserve University, told the Post. “Imagine having a child in the car who’s not vaccinated. People would want to know if a police officer coming to their window is protected.”

One solution is for departments to make vaccination compulsory, just as some health-care settings and universities have begun doing, experts said.

But police department leaders and union officials said in interviews with the Post that such requirements could backfire or lead to lengthy litigation. Of more than 40 major metropolitan police departments contacted by the Post, none had made vaccination mandatory.

“I hate to sound like I don’t care, but I really don’t,” Vince Champion, the Atlanta-based southeast regional director of the International Brotherhood of Police Officers, said of low vaccination rates. “It’s a personal decision. We fight [the virus] every day. We’re out among every disease in the world.”

Officers have voiced nervousness about the novelty of the shots and the speed with which they were developed, along with confidence that they can avoid the virus with proper protective gear, the Post reported. And many officers think previous COVID-19 infections have given them immunity, explained Sean Smoot, director and chief legal counsel of the Police Benevolent and Protective Association of Illinois. That assumption runs counter to federal health guidance, which states that recovered people should be vaccinated because how long infection confers protection is unknown.

As of Tuesday, the U.S. coronavirus case count neared 32.5 million, while the death toll topped 577,500, according to a tally from Johns Hopkins University. Worldwide, nearly 153.6 million cases had been reported by Tuesday, with more than 3.2 million people dead from COVID-19.

Originally Appeared On: https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=256079

EU privacy watchdog says facial recognition should be banned

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Facial recognition should be banned in Europe because of its “deep and non-democratic intrusion” into people’s private lives, EU privacy watchdog the European Data Protection Supervisor (EDPS) said on Friday.

The comments come two days after the European Commission proposed draft rules that would allow facial recognition to be used to search for missing children or criminals and in cases of terrorist attacks.

The draft rules, which need to be thrashed out with EU countries and the European Parliament, are an attempt by the Commission to set global rules for artificial intelligence, a technology dominated by China and the United States.

The privacy watchdog said it regretted that the Commission had not heeded its earlier call to ban facial recognition in public spaces.

“A stricter approach is necessary given that remote biometric identification, where AI may contribute to unprecedented developments, presents extremely high risks of deep and non-democratic intrusion into individuals’ private lives,” it said in a statement.

“The EDPS will focus in particular on setting precise boundaries for those tools and systems which may present risks for the fundamental rights to data protection and privacy.”

The Commission’s proposals have drawn criticism from civil rights groups, concerned about loopholes that may allow authoritarian governments to abuse AI to clamp down on people’s rights.

Originally Appeared On: https://tech.hindustantimes.com/tech/news/eu-privacy-watchdog-says-facial-recognition-should-be-banned-71619198452910.html

Cooling economy a worry

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Federal Reserve officials are just as worried about an inflation rate that runs too cold as one that runs too hot.

While rising prices are in the spotlight now as the economy reopens and demand surges, the longer-run trends that have suppressed costs globally could re-emerge as the pandemic ends, some policymakers warn. That would make it harder to deliver on their new strategy of running inflation above their 2% target for a time in order to achieve that goal in the long term.

“We are probably more likely to be successful with the new monetary policy regime than if we didn’t have it,” Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said in a Bloomberg News interview last week. But based on the experience of the past decade “you have to take seriously the idea that it is not going to be that easy to get 2% inflation.”

Policymakers at the central bank have been pressed in recent weeks about whether an expected spike in prices — as the U.S. rebounds from pandemic shutdowns — will be a temporary blip or something more permanent and dangerous to the economy after a wave of unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus over the past year.

For years, major economies including the U.S., Japan and the euro zone have struggled to raise inflation to 2% despite aggressive monetary policy actions. Aging populations, the impact of new technology and the disinflationary force of globalization are not things central banks can wish away, while rates stuck at zero — or below — telegraph the limits of their power.

Inflation pessimism shows up in forecasts released by Fed officials’ at their March meeting as well. Even after taking account of the passage last month of President Joe Biden’s additional $1.9 trillion stimulus package in their forecasts, more than half of the 18 Fed officials estimated inflation would be around 2% or slightly below next year. A majority also forecast prices in a range of 1.9% to 2.2% for 2023.

On the other hand, a sharp jump in consumer prices last month is a reminder that the risks are two-sided. Both goods and services prices rose last month with the consumer price index rising 0.6% after a 0.4% gain in February as the end of pandemic lockdowns drove up the cost of gasoline, car rentals and hotel rooms, according to data released Tuesday.

Rosengren said the Fed has never tried to shift to a new policy regime while exiting a pandemic amid aggressive fiscal stimulus. “We have to be pretty humble about how confident we are about what the inflation outcomes are going to be,” he said.

Some indicators of longer-run inflation are starting to move higher, a sign that the Fed is at least getting the public’s outlook pointing in the right direction. The rate on the five-year, forward swap contract for consumer-price inflation is hovering around 2.4%.

That is up from a low last year of just under 1% during the peak pandemic lock down period. When adjusting for measurement differences between CPI and the Fed’s preferred measure — the personal consumption expenditures price index — it puts longer-run inflation pricing in at just a touch over the central bank’s 2% target.

However, some market watchers — like Fed policymakers — see an enduring rise in inflation as a challenge.

Interest-rate derivative markets don’t foresee the Fed lifting its policy rate beyond about 2% during the upcoming tightening cycle. That’s below the 2.5% Fed officials forecast last month for their long-run policy rate. This backdrop signals that traders don’t see much risk of inflation unmooring or growth getting too robust before the next downturn.

“We are looking for a core CPI running closer to 1.9% or so,” after temporary base effects filter through the data, said Phoebe White, interest-rate strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. “That’s still pretty soft and we think the underlying trend in inflation is going to be pretty gradual to build as we look into 2022.”

There are a range of forces that are likely to keep inflation low from the Fed’s perspective, including the millions of still-unemployed Americans. Slow changes in pandemic behavior — even as vaccines roll out — weak wage-bargaining power and an aging workforce could also keep overall demand moderate and prices muted.

“We are of the view that we are going to continue to be in a lower inflationary environment both in the U.S. and globally,” said Steven Oh, head of fixed income at PineBridge Investments. “We are not necessarily going to be successful in reaching inflation targets on a sustainable basis.”

The Fed also has limited tools. In its recent statement, the Fed pledged to keep rates at zero until “inflation has risen to 2% and is on track to moderately exceed 2% for some time.”

But a pledge to do nothing also raises questions about the potency of policy. The U.S. central bank has a legacy of missing its 2% inflation target consistently since it was installed in 2012.”Really it’s about changing peoples’ mindsets and experience for the last ten years,” said Tiffany Wilding, economist at Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co.”You are going to need several periods, maybe several years, of inflation that is running above the Fed’s 2% target to really anchor those expectations, because they have moved down.”

Originally Appeared On: https://www.nwaonline.com/news/2021/apr/18/cooling-economy-a-worry/

Jobless claim numbers are improving — but the pandemic isn’t over yet

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Economic data released Thursday shows some hopeful signs of a strong post-pandemic recovery, five weeks after the federal government implemented a sweeping Covid-19 recovery bill — and as increased rates of vaccinations continue to push more Americans back into their local economies.

According to the Department of Labor, US jobless claims totaled 576,000 last week, the lowest number since the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020. That’s far below the 710,000 jobless claims economists polled by the Wall Street Journal experts expected to see this week, and the first time the Labor Department has reported under 600,000 unemployment claims in over a year. It’s a sign that the economy is recovering after months spent languishing in pandemic-induced recession.

“We’re gaining momentum here, which is just unquestionable,” Grant Thornton chief economist Diane Swonk told the New York Times, while also noting that so many unemployed people is no cause for celebration. “You’re still not popping champagne corks.”

Nevertheless, the numbers are vastly different than those that came at the beginning of the pandemic. When the US locked down for the first time last March, jobless claims skyrocketed, peaking at 3.3 million a week. Before that, the highest total was 700,000 in 1982. In 2021, 700,000 jobless claims has been taken as a good sign, down from 900,000 in early January.

Other economic indicators are also pointing to a potential recovery. For instance, retail spending rose nearly 10 percent in March. Double-digit gains in restaurants and bars suggest that the distribution of vaccines are at least partially responsible for the economic growth, as more people return to public settings with coronavirus protections in place.

But other economists and business leaders attribute much of this economic growth to the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan signed by President Joe Biden in March. While the rollout of a massive child tax credit and billions spent on housing assistance are aiding the overall economy, the $1,400 stimulus checks sent out to many Americans are seen as having led directly to the current retail spending boom, now at its highest point since May 2020. Shoppers spent more on clothing, sporting goods and electronics in March than in any month in 2021, the Commerce Department found.

“Spending will almost certainly drop back in April as some of the stimulus boost wears off,” Michael Pearce, senior US economist at Capital Economics, told NBC News. “But with the vaccination rollout proceeding at a rapid pace and households finances in strong shape, we expect overall consumption growth to continue rebounding rapidly in the second quarter too.”

The economy is still a long way from the heights of February 2020, when 8.5 million more Americans had jobs than they do today. A full recovery could take up to three years, though it’ll likely happen sooner, according to the Pew Research Center — getting there will require curbing the Covid-19 epidemic, a goal the US is making progress toward, but has not yet reached.

The economy likely needs herd immunity to fully recover

Good economic news doesn’t mean the pandemic — and all the problems it has created — are over. A full economic recovery is likely incumbent on the US reaching herd immunity (generally seen as when 70 to 85 percent of the public has some immunity to Covid-19), ensuring the country is no longer at the mercy of coronavirus-induced shutdowns.

At the moment, Covid-19 cases nationally are on the rise, especially in Michigan, where children and adults under age 30 now make up 30 percent of Covid-infected patients statewide and hospitalizations are at highs not seen since last fall. Overall, the US is averaging more than 70,000 cases per day. The rate of vaccinations has also been increasing, with the CDC regularly reporting record-breaking days; at the moment, the US is vaccinating an average of 3.3 million people per day, according to the New York Times. This has led to a situation that Dr. Anthony Fauci, chief medical advisor to the president, has described as “a race between the vaccine and the virus.”

Despite this, there is some concern herd immunity may be further off than it could be, especially in regions with low levels of vaccine confidence and demand. A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday found that roughly 45 percent of Republicans do not plan on getting vaccinated, suggesting the inroads Biden has tried to make to depoliticize the vaccine haven’t worked. Some states are already seeing a surplus of vaccines relative to demand. As of early April, Alabama had administered just 61.4 percent of its doses, an Axios analysis found.

If that lack of uptake is due to concern about the vaccine’s safety or efficacy, those number may change. Some research, including polling by the Kaiser Family Foundation, has found the number of Americans who want to see how the vaccine affects others before taking it declining as the pandemic goes on — and the number of people willing to take it increasing. As of March 2021, Kaiser’s pollsters found 62 percent of adults saying they’d gotten the vaccine or would as soon as possible, up from 55 percent in February.

Like the economic numbers, these figures are promising, and could usher in even further economic gains. These are badly needed, as unemployment remains elevated at 6 percent, as of March, (though less than half of its pandemic high of 14.8 percent). Within that unemployment figure is a reminder that the absence of a total economic recovery is affecting workers of color the most.

The unemployment rate for Hispanic workers is almost 2 percentage points higher than the overall unemployment rate, currently standing at 7.9 percent. For Black workers, it’s even higher, 3.6 percentage points above the overall unemployment rate at 9.6 percent. White workers, meanwhile, were under the topline number, at 5.4 percent.

Overall, however, economists remain bullish. Morgan Stanley is forecasting a 6.4 percent increase in global GDP this year, and a slightly more modest 5.9 percent increase in the US. It would be a stunning reversal of fortunes for a world economy that plunged to record depths in 2020.

“This was the deepest, swiftest recession ever, but it’s also turning into the fastest recovery, ZipRecruiter labor economist Julia Pollak told the New York Times. “And I don’t think we should lose sight of that just because some of the measures are a little stubborn.”

Originally Appeared On: https://www.vox.com/2021/4/15/22385989/april-unemployment-numbers-economy-improving-pandemic

U.S. economy rebounding, helped by stimulus and vaccines

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The survey credited a range of factors, from vaccinations to the payments of up to $1,400 for individuals from the $1.9-trillion relief package that President Joe Biden pushed through Congress last month.

The survey, known as the beige book, will form the basis for discussions when Fed officials meet on April 27–28 to discuss what to do about interest rates.

Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial, said the message from the beige book is that business activity is picking up but “the economy still has a lot of room to strengthen further.”

While private forecasters have been busy boosting their economic projections for this year, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has continued to stress that the central bank is not close to raising rates. The Fed released projections last month that indicated it will hold off raising rates until after 2023.

The beige book report, based on information from business contacts supplied by the Fed’s 12 regional banks, said that manufacturing activity continued to expand, with half of the Fed districts reporting robust manufacturing growth. Those gains came despite supply-chain disruptions in such critical areas as computer chips.

The survey found that the Fed’s regional bank in New York is seeing growth for the first time since the pandemic shut down the economy a year ago and that the expansion is “broad-based across industries.”

The Fed’s Philadelphia regional bank found that demand for goods and services is “on fire” but myriad severe supply constraints are continuing to hamper various industries.

Cleveland reported improvements in the hard-hit hotel and restaurant sectors. Similar improvements were reported by the Fed’s Atlanta regional bank, which covers tourist destinations in Florida.

Dallas reported that supply-chain disruptions have led to sharp increases in prices of goods, while the San Francisco district reported that residential construction remains strong.

The Fed survey found that many of its districts are seeing moderate price increases, specifically for materials such as metals, lumber, food and fuel.

The beige book reported that employment growth picked up as economic activity increased. It noted strong job gains in manufacturing, construction, and leisure and hospitality.

In an appearance Wednesday before the Economic Club of Washington, Powell acknowledged rising concerns about inflation following a report Tuesday that consumer prices rose 0.6% in March, the biggest one-month gain since 2012.

But Powell, who has been predicting a temporary spike in inflation this spring, repeated the view that the central bank wants to see inflation rise “moderately above 2% for some time” to make up for a decade when inflation has failed to reach the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

Originally Appeared On: https://www.advisor.ca/news/economic/u-s-economy-rebounding-helped-by-stimulus-and-vaccines/

Group: US economy gathers momentum as policy decisions reshape future | Farm Forum

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The U.S. economy continues to outperform expectations as stimulus funds are fueling robust consumer spending. Consensus forecasts point to 7% GDP growth for 2021, the fastest rate of expansion since 1984. Inflation is inevitable, however, as the 2020 price declines will widen year-over-year inflation over the next two quarters, and new upward price pressure should push headline inflation above 3%.

The transition to a less COVID-restricted world has begun. But for the economy and rural industries, there will be no going back to pre-COVID conditions. A transformed policy environment and awakened commodity markets are making way for a whole new operating environment, according to the new Quarterly report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange.

“The policy focus in Washington is shifting from crisis management to building for the future,” said Dan Kowalski, vice president of CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange division. “And the outcome of the president’s infrastructure plan will have substantial implications for rural water, power and broadband providers. Hundreds of billions of dollars in funding would reshape these industries and intensify the current focus on climate resilience and social equity.”

The cyclical turn in grain pricing, driven by strong demand and tight stocks, continued during the first quarter of 2021 and has picked up further gains ahead of spring planting. Accumulated grain exports to China have been very strong. While the backdrop for the grain and oilseed complex is positive, there are issues worth monitoring that could result in price volatility in the coming months. A recent surge of African Swine Fever in Asian countries could temporarily slow soybean demand.

Farm supply retailers are positioned to benefit from an exceptionally strong spring agronomy season, outpacing fall and spring 2020. Financially strong U.S. crop farmers should increase spending given a 3.1% increase in planted corn, soybean and wheat acres. Fertilizer prices rose 42% during Q1 and are now 96% above the trough level in May 2020. While much of the Midwest Corn Belt is free of drought, some areas of concern surfaced in late March.

The U.S. fuel ethanol sector has recovered, with production running near 90% of pre-COVID levels. The industry is adapting to new short-term and long-term realities, including changes in driving and work habits, policy directives on ethanol and fossil fuels and increased adoption of electric vehicles. Operating margins averaged near $0.10/gallon but rose sharply in March to above $0.25/gallon as fuel ethanol prices rose and natural gas prices fell.

U.S. chicken prices started 2021 on a high note, climbing over 20% in the first quarter. These prices offset the double-digit rate of feed cost inflation and brought spot margins well into positive territory. The counts of eggs set and chick placements are a leading indication that chicken production will remain at current levels, so chicken prices continue to look strong through the summer. Expected increases in vacation and business travel this summer will boost food service sales, benefiting the chicken sector.

U.S. beef demand has been incredibly strong in the first quarter despite the challenges in foodservice and the away-from-home dining sector. Strong demand and expectations for limited supply growth in the back half of 2021 have driven up cattle futures. The USDA expects beef production to decline by 3.5% in the second half of 2021, which has helped lift cattle prices nearly 15% above year-ago levels. Packer margins remain elevated, but producers are expected to realize better margins in the second half of 2021.

Strong first quarter demand for pork, coupled with indications of limited supply growth, has lifted hog sector profitability to levels not seen in many years. Concerns over feed and other cost inflation has taken a back seat to optimism for another year of strong pork exports and robust domestic demand as U.S. consumer behavior slowly returns to normal. China has slowed its hog herd rebuilding due to increased ASF cases this winter, helping drive the positive outlook for the remainder of the year.

The pace of U.S. dairy exports started 2021 on a weaker note as exporters continue to struggle with trade logistics, specifically with the scarcity of containers, port congestion and rising transportation costs. Cheese and butter stocks continued their rapid ascent, climbing 5.4% and 16.8% year-over-year respectively, for February. U.S. milk production rose in January and again in February, giving dairy processors ample milk supplies for processing. Cow numbers in February reached the highest level in 30 years following months of ongoing expansion.

Combined cotton and rice planted acreage is expected to fall for the third consecutive year in the U.S. according to USDA’s latest projections, as acres shift out of pima cotton and all classes of rice. The surge in upland cotton prices has blunted losses in its acreage. Last year’s rally in refined sugarbeet prices also forestalled losses in sugarbeet acreage. The recovery in U.S. foodservice demand remains an unknown for both rice and sugar, while China remains critical for U.S. cotton demand.

Tree nut exports reached an all-time high with the peak shipping now drawing to a close. However, container shortages and port constraints are estimated to have delayed U.S. tree nut export shipments 10%-20% in the opening months of the year. The lack of movement could potentially translate into higher-than-expected tree nut inventories at the end of the marketing season. Drought conditions in California are raising concerns of limited water allocations in the forthcoming growing season.

February’s polar vortex refocused attention on deficiencies in U.S. power, energy and water infrastructure, and how it is affected by climate change. Widespread failures in energy systems tend to negatively impact water systems. Consequently, any climate mitigation program in the U.S. must account for water and energy system dependencies. President Biden, delivering on his “Build Back Better” platform promise, has announced the American Jobs Plan — a $2 trillion infrastructure and economic modernization bill, which includes a major focus on climate change.

The recently enacted American Rescue Plan Act included $20 billion for broadband availability and affordability and the American Jobs Plan includes $100 billion to bridge the digital divide. Details are not finalized, but President Biden wants to prioritize funding for nonprofits, cooperatives and local governments. The ultimate outcome of the infrastructure plan will have substantial implications for rural water, power and broadband providers.

Originally Appeared On: https://www.aberdeennews.com/farm_forum/group-us-economy-gathers-momentum-as-policy-decisions-reshape-future/article_e9810d24-98a6-11eb-9e2e-7794a7f37843.html

US nears full reopening to ‘different economy’

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The U.S. economy, boosted by quickening vaccinations and signs of rapid hiring, is headed toward a strong recovery, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday.

But he cautioned that not all will immediately benefit.

“There are a number of factors that are coming together to support a brighter outlook for the U.S. economy,” Powell said during the virtual spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. Those factors are putting the nation “on track to allow a full reopening of the economy fairly soon.”

Still, Powell said many Americans who are out of work will struggle to find new jobs because some industries will likely be smaller than they were before the pandemic. In other cases, employers are seeking to use technology instead of workers where possible, he said.

“It’s important to remember we’re not going back to the same economy,” Powell said. “This will be a different economy.”

US jobless claims up to 744K as virus still forces layoffs

The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits rose last week to 744,000, signaling that many employers are still cutting jobs even as more people are vaccinated against COVID-19, consumers gain confidence and the government distributes aid throughout the economy.

The Labor Department said Thursday that applications increased by 16,000 from 728,000 a week earlier. Jobless claims have declined sharply since the virus slammed into the economy in March of last year. But they remain stubbornly high by historical standards: Before the pandemic erupted, weekly applications typically remained below 220,000 a week.

For the week ending March 27, more than 3.7 million people were receiving traditional state unemployment benefits, the government said.

Originally Appeared On: https://www.bostonherald.com/2021/04/08/feds-powell-us-nears-full-reopening-to-different-economy/

Biden’s infrastructure plan will increase long-run productivity of the U.S. economy: IMF

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Yahoo Finance’s Alexis Christoforous, Kristin Myers and Brian Cheung discuss the latest global implications of Biden’s infrastructure plan with Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, Director of the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department of the IMF.

This is a video transcript.

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: Welcome back. The International Monetary Fund is advocating for more international cooperation as the vaccine rollout continues globally. Here to walk us through the global outlook and how the world’s nations should be working together is Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, an IMF Director who oversees the fund’s work with the G20 and the United Nations. We’re also joined by Yahoo Finance’s Brian Cheung.

Ceyla, thanks so much for being with us. First, I’d like to get your thoughts on the news of the day, which was President Biden releasing the blueprint for his budget, which we know is on top of the $1.9 trillion COVID relief package, which is on top of a $2 trillion-plus infrastructure package. Is this prudent to be spending this kind of money right now when our nation’s debt is more than the American economy combined?

CEYLA PAZARBASIOGLU: So very nice to be with all of you. In our surveillance work, which is IMF’s key mandate, it’s basically the annual check up of countries, we have long been saying that the US needs increase in infrastructure spending. You were talking just a little while ago about the shortcomings of the quality and size of public investments in– in the US.

So this is very much going to increase the long-run productivity of the US economy, and also transition to a less carbon-intensive economic model. So I think this is good news. They also have the tax plan, which should help finance part of the costs.

BRIAN CHEUNG: Hey, Ceyla, it’s Brian Cheung here. Great to have you on the show. I wanted to ask just about the global picture on the inequal recovery, if you will. We know that was the case with the vaccine distribution, because most of the wealthy countries are the ones that have the most access to the vaccines, which is going to be the quickest way to get out of the economic rut that we experienced last year. So from the IMF’s perspective, what is the situation for those lower-income emerging developing countries? And how is that gap going to even widen through the vaccine rollout globally?

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CEYLA PAZARBASIOGLU: Yeah. So Brian, we did just came up this– this week with our global growth forecast. We did upgrade from 5.5% to 6% for 2021. But as you said, we also warned about the increasing divergences across countries. And this is really related very much to the– the response that countries were able to take, the policy response, which has been very divergent as well.

If you look at advanced economies, for example, they were able to put in policy packages of 23% of GDP. For emerging market economies, this was 6% of GDP. And for low-income countries, 2% of GDP. So the response to deal with this tragic pandemic has been very different across countries.

And also, if you take, for example, the vaccine administration, this also has been very different across countries. When you really look at 100 doses– the doses administered per 100 people, the amounts are very starkly different. Take the case of US, it’s 43 doses for 100 people. For emerging markets, it’s 8. For low-income countries, it’s 2.

So really stark differences, and this is what we have been worrying about, that this will create inequalities within countries, with, of course, the low-skilled women and youth impacted much more in this crisis, as well as across countries with the advanced economies and emerging markets, and especially low-income countries very different prospects for recovery are very much of a multi-speed and diverging recovery.

BRIAN CHEUNG: And Ceyla, this week, which is the annual spring meeting at the IMF, was a big forum to discuss the idea of a new special allocation of what they call special drawing rights. For viewers that might not understand, it’s a pool of money that the IMF can award based on certain quotas to member nations. And this has been something that the managing director has said might help a lot of those countries that you were just saying that might be struggling out of the other side of this recovery.

But of course, this is a bit of a politically thorny issue, because a lot of the advanced nations would also benefit from the SDR allocation. So you liaise with the G20 and the United Nations. What have those discussions been like in terms of this aspirational $650 billion in new allocations? And how might you communicate what the purpose of this and how it works to our viewers?

CEYLA PAZARBASIOGLU: Yeah, thanks. Thanks, Brian, for that question. It is really historic. It’s historic general allocation, $650 billion proposed, as you said, the special drawing rights. And to me, it signals international cooperation. And in the context of the uncertain and multi-speed recovery, with divergences across the advanced and low-income world, this is particularly important.

It’s basically an increase in global reserves across the world. So everyone– every country, depending on their quota, will get an increase in their reserves. And 42% will go to emerging markets and developing countries. That’s about $275 billion US dollars.

We will go to the board by June. The managing director will send the proposal. And then if that’s approved, hopefully by August we should be able to have this SDR allocation effective. It will help in these uncertain times to provide buffer for all countries, but it’s particularly important for that are most vulnerable.

And also, as you have seen in the G20, many countries have said that, voluntarily, that they would be willing to unlend or channel some of their SDRs to those countries that are most in need. So we are also working on options and proposals for a voluntary unlending or channeling of SDRs by countries that do not need them.

KRISTIN MYERS: Ceyla, you know, we’ve seen over the last couple of decades, actually, governments not getting all the money that is really owed to them as a lot of corporations have been able to skirt and avoid paying tax by moving their companies around to the country with the lowest tax rate. And obviously, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has now proposed this global minimum tax rate. I know it’s a measure and a move that the IMF does support. I do want to ask you, however, the likelihood that you think a measure like this could be enacted, could be passed by a consortium of countries? Is there anything that the IMF can do to push some of those countries along to adopt this measure?

CEYLA PAZARBASIOGLU: So yes, this is very much discussed at the G20 level as well. The idea is to come up with an agreement by the end of the– by the mid-year, actually, by June, so there is a big momentum. It’s very important that there is discussion across the countries, especially the G20. And I am optimistic. We are optimistic that this is going to be– we are going to see progress on this.

BRIAN CHEUNG: And Ceyla, I wanted to ask about the– just China’s role in all of this. Obviously, there were a lot of questions in Janet Yellen’s testimony to Congress about how China might benefit from the SDR, but then just broadly also their role in global cooperation during this really important period of time where everyone’s trying to get on board with a global recovery. What are those conversations like with China? Janet Yellen was saying that she can be adversarial where they might need to be from the US part. How does the IMF approach their participation in the global order?

CEYLA PAZARBASIOGLU: So China is very important, as you said. It’s one of the largest creditors to many of the low-income countries, which have seen an increase in debt levels. And China has been participating in the G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative. They have been participating also in the common framework debt treatments. This is to bring all creditor countries to agree on either debt reprofiling or debt restructuring for countries that really need them.

And China has also contributed to our Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust fund, which is for us to be able to provide grants to countries for the debt service payments to the IMF. So China has been very much working on all of these different initiatives. Of course, much is expected of China going forward. And it will remain to be seen how the common framework works, as well as in the context of many of our programs how we can support developing countries, which really need collaboration from China in terms of dealing with some of the debt problems.

More generally, more broadly on the climate change agenda, China has been also a very important force. The Chinese and– authorities and the US authorities are co-chairing the Sustainable Finance Group under the G20 Climate Initiative. This is really remarkable. This study group was dormant for a while. And it shows that there are these collaborative efforts to really make progress and– on important areas as debt sustainability and transparency, as well as on climate change.

ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: All right, we’re going to leave it there. Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, IMF Director. Thanks for your time today. Still ahead, we’re going to break down President Biden’s budget

Originally Appeared On: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/biden-infrastructure-plan-increase-long-193001137.html

Chauvin’s Trial Leaves Many Black Viewers Emotionally Taxed

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Charles McMillian becomes emotional as he answers questions at the trial of former Minneapolis police Officer Derek Chauvin in the Hennepin County Courthouse in Minneapolis, Minn. Chauvin is charged in the May 25, 2020 death of George Floyd.
(Court TV via AP, Pool, File)

For some it’s too much to watch. Others just can’t turn away.

The televised trial of Derek Chauvin, the former white police officer charged in the death of George Floyd, has provoked strong emotions among many Black men and women — all tinged with an underlying dread that it could yield yet another devastating disappointment.

For many, it has brought back memories of the disturbing video of Floyd’s last moments as he gasped for breath with Chauvin’s knee on his neck. The video galvanized protests in cities across the U.S. and the world, as the words “Black Lives Matter” took hold.

“I had to mute the TV,” said Lisa Harris, 51, of Redford Township, just west of Detroit. “Hearing Mr. Floyd continue to say he can’t breathe and call for his mother — it was a lot. It’s been a lot to watch.”

Steven Thompson remembers closely watching the 2013 trial of George Zimmerman in the shooting death of 17-year-old Trayvon Martin in Florida and feeling blindsided. Zimmerman, who identifies as Hispanic, was acquitted on all counts in the unarmed Black teen’s death, including second-degree murder.

“I didn’t expect that outcome,” Thompson, 35, said. “But I’m a lot less ignorant now.”

Thompson is choosing not to watch the trial of Chauvin, the former Minneapolis officer charged with murder and manslaughter, even though he feels there is a strong case against him.

“I definitely have a fear of being let down. And instead of investing my time and energy into it now, knowing how these things go, I’d rather be pleasantly surprised,” the Los Angeles resident said.

Marlene Gillings-Gayle said she had planned not to watch the trial to preserve her peace of mind. But she’s found herself watching almost all of it. She’s had to force herself to go outside and take walks, or risk watching the trial all day and feeling upset.

The retired high school teacher who lives in New York City describes herself as a political person who likes to stay aware of current events and vocalize her opinions.

“I’m trying not to be pissed, because we’ve been here and done that too many times,” she said, referring to other police officers acquitted in the deaths of unarmed Black people. She’s watching the trial with apprehension, as she ponders what Floyd’s killing and the way the trial has unfolded so far says about America and its values.

Chauvin, 45, who was eventually fired from the police force, is accused of killing a handcuffed Floyd last May by pinning his knee on the 46-year-old Black man’s neck for 9 minutes, 29 seconds, as he lay face-down. Floyd had been accused of passing a counterfeit $20 bill at a neighborhood market.

The first week of the trial has included emotional testimonies from several people who witnessed Floyd’s death: The young woman, a teenager at the time, who filmed Floyd’s last moments and told the courtroom she stays “up nights apologizing to George Floyd;” the 61-year-old man who sobbed on the stand, compelling the judge to order a 10-minute recess; the firefighter who begged officers to let her check Floyd’s pulse as he gasped for air, saying, “I was desperate to help.”

The grief and trauma of these witnesses has been on full display, filling in details from new perspectives to create a fuller picture of the scene that people around the world watched over cellphone video last May.

For Kyra Walker, it was enough to tune out and shut down Twitter one day.

“I realized I just didn’t have it in me to watch all this,” she said.

Floyd’s death was traumatizing enough for Walker, but seeing conversations about the trial on Twitter this week brought back a flood of emotions she has grappled with over the course of the last year.

“I had a moment where I just felt broken and I started thinking about Ahmaud Arbery and Breonna Taylor and how in such a short time frame, it was like one Black death after the other, without a break,” she said. It has made her feel paranoid at times for her 11-year-old Black son anytime he leaves home.

The trial is only furthering the uneasiness many felt when the video of Chauvin pressing his knee to Floyd’s neck started to circulate online.

“It took me a while to watch it because I know what these videos are about. I know the ending already,” Thompson said.

Leigh Smith, a logistics operations manager who lives in the Detroit suburb of Grosse Pointe Park, said he has tuned in each day of the trial. He calls some of the testimony “freaking depressing.”

“You catch a murder on camera and you’re going to explain away to me that this man died of a heart attack?” Smith said of Floyd. “All this does is reaffirm the hatred and entrenchment of white supremacy and white domination over communities of color.”

Brenda Hill, 57, of Detroit watched every video during every minute of the trial’s first two days. Hill, who works for a nonprofit that advocates for low-wage workers, isn’t so sure the rest of the country is viewing the trial — or how African Americans continue to be treated — through the same lens.

“We don’t have any trust in this criminal justice system,” she said. “I should be assured that by this time everyone saw what I did. I’m disgusted, I’m hurt by everything.”

As witnesses and attorneys in the courtroom recount the final moments of Floyd’s life in detail, the emotional trauma many Black Americans have felt over the last several years is resurfacing.

“Our country needs counseling,” Gillings-Gayle said. “The witnesses have been grieving and suffering for the last 10 months. And we’ve all been grieving, too.”

Originally Appeared On: https://news.wttw.com/2021/04/03/chauvin-s-trial-leaves-many-black-viewers-emotionally-taxed